Month: June 2013

Der Gott des Feuers!!!

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Waehrend alle Welt nach wie vor gespannt auf den Israel-Iran-Konflikt schaut und abwartet ob der Iran nun tatsaechlich Atombomben baut oder nicht, bereits besitzt oder nicht und ob Israel mit oder ohne Amerikaner Praeventivschlaege durchfuehren wuerde, geschehen anderswo weiterhin Tests rund um Atomwaffen.

Vor einiger Zeit hat Nord Korea ihre inzwischen dritte Interkontinentalrakete mehr oder weniger klaeglich gestestet. Die Rakete sollte urspruenglich einen Sateliten in einen stabilen Orbit schicken, brach allerdings kurz nach dem Start in mehrere Teile.

Etwas erfolgreicher waren dagegen die Inder, die am letzten Donnerstag mit ihrer Agni V1 ihre erste langstrecken Rakete getestet hat, die nukleare Warheads tragen kann. Mit einer Reichweite von 5.000 km koennen die Inder nun endlich die grossen Staedte an der Ostkueste Chinas erreichen und Teile Europas. Indien versucht damit seine Rolle auf dem internationalem Parkett der Grossmaechte zu festigen und sich als zweite Macht aus Asien hervorzuheben und aus dem Schatten Chinas heraustreten um so auch als Gegenwicht in der Region zu agieren, nachdem China seinen Nachbarn mit seinen territorialen Besitzanspruechen in der suedchinesischen See offensichtlich regelmaessig ans Bein pinkelt:

“India can now deter China, it can impose maximum possible punishment if China crosses the red line,” Srikanth Kondapalli, professor in Chinese studies at Delhi’s Jawaharlal Nehru University told Reuters” (Economist, 2012)

Dies mag auch and Chinas Militaerstrategie liegen, die in Chinas Science of Military Strategy2 veroeffentlicht wurde. Denn trotz der Tatsache das China grosse Konflikte lieber meiden moechte und friedlich wachsen und mit seinen Nachbarn leben will und inzwischen gute wirtschaftliche Verbindungen mit Indien unterhaelt, heisst es dort ueber “active defense”

if any country or organization violates the other country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, the other side will have the right to “fire the first shot” on the plane of tactics

3

weiter heisst es dort wohl:

an enemy offends our national interests it means that the enemy has already fired the first shot

Quelle
Auch Chinas Umgang mit Taiwan kann als eine Ursache zur Vorsicht seitens Chinas Nachbarn angesehen werden, moeglicherweise auch ein Antreiber fuer Indiens wachsende militaerische Ausgaben neben dem schwelenden Konflikt mit Pakistan? Dieser Umgang drueckt deutlich Chinas Selbstbild aus, Jia Xiudong vom China Institute of International Studies fasst Chinas Politik dahingehend wie folgt zusammen:

The first priority is Taiwan. The mainland is patient, but independence is not the future for Taiwan. China’s military forces should be ready to repel any force of intervention. The US likes to maintain what it calls ‘strategic ambiguity’ over what it would do in the event of a conflict arising from secession. We don’t have any ambiguity. We will use whatever means we have to prevent it happening.

Quelle
Indien, wie auch immer, moechte also nun neben China zur naechsten Supermacht werden…

22. April 2012 07:10

 

Nudge, conditioning and Mumbai

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Following essay was written for my first psychology course on coursera.org =) It contains my interest in behavioral economics and combines insights with the stuff I learned in the course. It is still in the peer review process, I hope my fellow students will give a good mark…

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Last year, Bloomberg Businessweek (Shaftel, 2012) published an article about an attempt by the administration of Mumbai to decrease the death toll of commuters and people living and working close to train stations in the city. Taking illegal shortcuts over the tracks caused up to 6,000 deaths every year. The transit authority asked the local marketing company FinalMile to come up with a plan to reduce the deaths. The Behavior Architects of FinalMile distributed images of screaming people being run over by trains along the tracks to increase the awareness of the danger. Secondly, the honking of the train horns were changed in order to set it apart from the aural landscape it used to blend in perfectly. As a result of this conditioning, death rates declined around 75% at Wadala station in central Mumbai between 2009 and 2010 (Shaftel, 2012). Therefore, I suggest exploring the feasibility of behavioural architecture aka conditioning to positively change behaviour in societies.

The research for this goes back to the 1920’s, when behavioural psychologist John B. Watson conducted conditioning experiments, of which the Little Albert Experiment is the most famous one known today (Watson & Rayner, 1920). In this experiment, the test subject Little Albert was exposed to stimuli, i.e. a white rat, in order to test his initial, in this case fearless, reaction. Then, Watson et al. (1920) introduced a second, uncomfortable stimulus in the form of a loud noise behind Little Albert every time he faced the initial stimuli. After several repetitions of this experiment, Little Albert showed intensive fear responses towards the stimuli. From this, Watson and his colleagues (1920) concluded that certain behaviour is conditioned rather than biological predetermined.

Although Watson et al. (1920) believe the conditioning would be permanent, experiments conducted by Russian physiologist Ivan Pavlov showed that conditioning faces extinction (Pavlov, 2006 [1927]). In his experiments with dogs, Pavlov (2006 [1927]) showed that the conditioned reaction to one stimulus, i.e. a blown whistle, would soon disappear after it was no longer accompanied by a second stimulus, the presentation of food, which triggered the dogs’ unconditioned reaction to drool. Thus, conditioning is not permanent. However, since Little Albert was only a pseudonym and his true identity has been kept secret, it is unknown whether or not the conditioning of the experiment lasted.

Nowadays, these conditioning techniques are inspired by the bestselling book Nudge (Sunstein & Thaler, 2008) and become more and more popular amongst behavioural economist when working in public policy projects around the world. The research by Watson (1920), and and in some respect Pavlov (2006 [1927]), show that people are open to conditioning and will change behaviour. Thus, I argue that reasonable conditioning policies or campaigns can help to make the world a better and safer place. In a recent TED talk, behavioural economist Alex Laskey (TEDtalksDirector, 2013) demonstrated how such campaigns can reduce the household consumption of energy, which is both beneficial for the environment and peoples bank account. This shows that the applications are comprehensive. However, in regard to the attempts by FinalMile and the authorities of Mumbai, time will show whether or not some sort of extinction will happen with this case as well. Therefore, further research will be necessary.

 

References

Pavlov, I. (2006 [1927]). In Anrep G. V. (Ed.), Conditioned reflexes: An investigation of the physiological activity of the cerebral cortex (G. V. Anrep Trans.). New York: Oxford University Press.

Shaftel, D. (2012). “Behavior architects” tackle india’s social problems. Retrieved June 14, 2013, from http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-10-25/behavior-architects-tackle-indias-social-problems

Sunstein, C. R., & Thaler, R. H. (2008). Nudge: Improving decisions about health, wealth and happiness. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

Alex laskey: How behavioral science can lower your energy bill. TEDtalksDirector (Director). (2013).[Video/DVD] Youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4cJ08wOqloc

Watson, J. B., & Rayner, R. (1920). Conditioned emotional reaction. Journal of Experimental Psychology, 3(1), 1-14.